BritSimon o progresu u Evropi.
For Europe there is obviously a big disappointment coming for many people. I was sure we were going to see numbers in the 30’s. I really don’t think that will happen now. We have been used to EU doing very well, and I was hopeful this year would see a good high number. However, I am more and more certain that we are going to see a shockingly low VB number. Why? Well we can look at two things to estimate remaining progress. The month to month pace (based on embassy capacity etc), and the progress toward the quota (18300).
First, the pace. KCC reduced the pace in terms of the number of “real” case numbers since March. The VBs for April, May and now June interviews have only made 1070 to 1200 new real cases current. By the time we take response rate into account that means they are setting interviews for ~600 to ~750 new cases each month (plus another 150 to 200 from “backlog” cases each month.
So how about the quota? From that pace we would only expect to see around 1200 to 1500 visas issued each month (approximately!). However, that will probably get close to the quota even at that pace, because there are 10500 visas issued already leaving about 7500 to 8000 visas left (and 5.5 months of processing). So – the pace seems to suggest that KCC believe they are on track to meet the quota with existing pace (similar to what we saw in the last 3 VBs).
So – at the current density (which remains static until high 30’s) we could see VB increases of around 2500 a month (give or take a couple of hundred). That would get us to about 28000 or even a little less. That could happen. We would need to see increases of more than 3000 to get over 30000 – but there is not much evidence to hint at that increase in pace. So – I think a final number in the high 20’s is very likely. I have been responding “wait and see” to high cases in the 20’s for around a month now. I was hoping the VB today would dispel the fears. It didn’t.
Again – the data is available for all – please feel free to retain your own hope – I cannot be certain what will happen. Feel free to disagree with me and form your own opinion. Really – all we can do is wait and see how this rollercoaster will end. I fully realize the dreams people have based on this lottery. Best of luck to you all for your own cases – but please do show some sensitivity for the many people who want and deserve this opportunity just as much as you do – and perhaps are behind you in the line.
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